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Daily Economic Update
14.12.2025
US: Weekly jobless claims climb from an over three-year low; Trump says Kevin Warsh has moved to the top of the Fed Chair shortlist. Initial weekly jobless claims (w/e December 6) climbed to a three-month high of 236K from an over three-year low of 192K the previous week. However, continuing claims fell to the lowest since April to 1.84 million (w/e November 29) from 1.94 million the week before. Given usual swings in claims around year-end, coinciding with the Thanksgiving holiday period, the rebound in weekly jobless claims is not surprising and does not yet signal any reversal in the broader trend seen in recent months, that is a low-firing scene amid decreased hiring activity. Meanwhile, the country’s trade deficit (goods plus services) in September unexpectedly dropped to $53 billion, the lowest level since June 2020, from $59 billion in August as a slight increase in imports was more than offset by a much bigger rise in exports, which would lift contribution of net trade to overall GDP during Q3. Following the FOMC decision to cut interest rates by 25 bps last week, the latest Fed commentary underscored increasing concerns about inflation among policymakers. Two dissenters in the last meeting, Kansas City Fed President Schmid and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who both voted to keep rates unchanged, highlighted higher inflation as the reason for the dissent. Goolsbee emphasized that “the more prudent course would have been to wait for more information” before deciding the next move. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Hammack (non-voting member) also raised inflation worries and preferred “to be on a slightly more restrictive stance.” However, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (non-voting member) was “a little more concerned about labor market weakness than about upside risks to inflation,” showing divergence in views. Finally, President Trump mentioned that Kevin Warsh, one of the five shortlisted candidates to be nominated as Fed Chair, has moved to the top of that list following ongoing interviews with the candidates. This follows earlier news that Kevin Hasset, the National Economic Council Director, was the frontrunner to be Fed Chair. Trump repeated his view that the Fed Chair should consult with the President about interest rate decisions. This is a reminder that the Fed’s independence is at stake in 2026.
UK: Economy in October unexpectedly contracts on pre-budget jitteriness. UK’s monthly GDP in October fell by 0.1% m/m after posting a similar drop in September, as the 0.3% fall in services during the month overshadowed a 1.1% recovery in production on pre-budget anxieties among businesses and consumers. With this, the economy has recorded growth only once in the past seven months, and given a weak start to Q4, the Bank of England’s forecast of 0.3% q/q growth in the current quarter now appears optimistic. On a positive note, the Chancellor presented the Autumn budget on November 26, delivering higher welfare spending, which could help lift growth prospects next year.
UAE: Strong off-plan market pushes Dubai property sales up 50% y/y in November. Dubai’s real estate sales growth accelerated in November, with total sales reaching AED64.7 billion, up by 50% y/y and reversing the yearly decline seen in October at -3.1% on the back of a 30.9% increase in transaction volumes, according to DXB interact. Total sales remained near their historical high level seen last May of AED66.8 billion. First sales, which include off-plan sales, dominated activity with 64% of all sales in November and surged by 65% y/y to AED41.4 billion, supported by a 51% rise in volumes. The re-sale segment also strengthened, rising by 28% y/y to AED23.3 billion, though sale volumes were broadly unchanged. Apartments led, recording AED32.1 billion (+37.4% y/y), with off-plan sales at AED23.7 billion (+59%), accounting for 74% of total apartment transactions and underscoring robust buyer appetite for new supply. Villa sales, however, softened to AED13.2 billion (6.6% y/y), reflecting weaker first sales at AED6.3 billion (14.3% y/y) partly offset by modest re-sale growth to AED6.9 billion (2.9% y/y). Plot transactions totaled AED17.1 billion (3.6% y/y), signaling continued demand for land development opportunities. Top performing areas in November were Jumeirah Village Circle, Wadi Al Safa 5, and Business Bay areas. On a year-to-date basis, total real estate sales growth remained robust at 30% y/y to reach AED621.1 billion, supported by strong first sale segment. Overall, renewed sales momentum in November, driven chiefly by off-plan launches and resilient demand, signals market confidence despite more mixed villa segment dynamics. The sales climate should remain positive in 2026, supported by strong foreign demand and ongoing government initiatives to expand housing supply.
