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Daily Economic Update
10.11.2025
Kuwait: Residential property sales rebound in October. Overall real estate sales edged up in October from its five-month low seen in the previous month to reach KD402.0 million (23% y/y; 20% m/m). This increase came mainly on higher residential sales which rose by 41% m/m to reach a 29-month high of KD169.4 million and solid gains in the investment segment sales, which increased to its highest level since June at KD154 million (30% y/y; 70% m/m), shedding the seasonal impact of the summer lull seen in Q3. On the other hand, the volatility in the commercial segment remained, with sales declining to KD78.5 million from its historical high of KD240 million seen in August, though rising by 13.5% y/y. For the first ten months of 2025, real estate sales increased by 26.5% y/y to reach KD3.4 billion supported mainly by the gains seen in the investment segment (61% y/y), raising its share to 40% of total sales as well as the gradual recovery in residential sales of 7.3% y/y. Looking ahead, the market is expected to maintain its momentum into 2026, supported by the anticipated approval of the real estate financing law and the potential for lower interest rates, both of which could further stimulate demand and sustain the positive performance seen throughout 2025.
Egypt: Foreign currency reserves exceeded the $50 billion mark during October. Foreign reserves continued their remarkable rise during October, surpassing the $50 billion mark for the first time ever, supported by stronger FX-generating sectors and continued portfolio inflows. According to Central Bank of Egypt data, net international reserves rose by USD 537.8 million during the month, reaching USD 50.1 billion, up from USD 49.5 billion in September. This level now covers more than eight months of merchandise imports, well above internationally recognized adequacy thresholds, reinforcing Egypt’s ability to meet external obligations and supporting exchange-rate stability and FX liquidity in the market. The steady improvement in reserves also enhances investor and institutional confidence in Egypt’s macro trajectory and strengthens the case for potential future credit-rating upgrades.
Egypt: Egypt's trade deficit narrowed by 4.6% y/y in August as exports strengthened. The trade deficit narrowed by 4.6% y/y in August to USD 4.73 billion, down from USD 4.96 billion a year earlier, driven primarily by stronger export performance, according to CAPMAS. Exports rose 6.7% y/y to USD 3.96 billion, supported by higher shipments of ready-made garments (+20.6%), food preparations (+29.1%), crude oil (+7.6%), and soap and detergents (+29.4%). These gains outweighed declines in several categories, including petrochemicals (-21.6%), plastics (-30.3%), fertilizers (-29.9%), and fresh fruits (-15.3%). Imports were broadly stable, increasing only by 0.2% y/y to USD 8.69 billion. The modest rise reflected higher imports of natural gas (+88.9%), passenger cars (+66.1%), soybeans (+135.4%), and corn (+12.6%), partly offset by lower imports of iron and steel (-33.8%), wheat (-13.3%), petrochemicals (-15.5%), and primary plastics (-7.8%).
US: Senate deal clears major hurdle in ending the government shutdown soon. US Senate majority leader John Thume expressed confidence that a bipartisan deal was “coming together” as additional Democrat Senators broke with their party leaders and lent their support to stopgap funding measures. Following a procedural 60-40 vote this morning, a final vote in the Senate to pass the deal is expected soon. However, House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries had rejected the initial terms and vowed to “fight the GOP bill in the House of Representatives.” Markets cheered the rising hope for a resolution of the 40-day long gridlock soon, with US equity futures trading firmly in the green this morning. The government closure has been weighing on economic activity, as the Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that, depending upon the length, it could shave 1-2 percentage points from Q4’s GDP. In addition, a resumption of official economic data releases should help the Fed make a more-informed policy decision at the FOMC December meeting.
Oil: Prices close lower amid oversupply concerns. Brent declined for a second consecutive week on Friday, dropping 2.2% w/w to $63.6/bbl (-14.8% ytd). Bearish signals dominated the week, with the Saudis lowering the official selling price (OSP) of their main oil grade to Asia, Arab Light, to its lowest in 11 months – shortly after approving through OPEC+ a pause in supply increases for the first three months of 2026 – and after the US Federal Aviation Administration instructed airlines to cut thousands of flights due to a shortage of air traffic controllers caused by the US government shutdown. The latter is materially affecting demand for jet fuel and diesel. A surprise buildup in commercial crude inventories last week (+5.2 mb) on higher imports and lower refinery processing rates and the news that President Trump had granted Hungary an exemption from US sanctions on Russian energy, effectively permitting the country to continue importing pipelined crude from Russia, also fed into the oversupplied market narrative. Further insight into the current and future state of oil consumption and supply could come this week with the publication by all three of the major oil reporting agencies, the International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC and the US’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), their monthly oil market reports. The IEA will also be publishing this week its influential World Energy Outlook 2025, which will likely catalogue global decarbonization efforts, assess the penetration of renewables in the energy mix and map out any still viable net-zero scenarios.
Global: Near-end of the US government shutdown, UK GDP data, and China retail sales and industrial production key matters this week. In the US, the government shutdown is nearing its end after additional Democrat Senators broke with their leadership and lent their support to stopgap funding measures. Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, likely offering some clues about their positions with respect to the Fed meeting in December. Given the ongoing dearth in official data releases, the newly-introduced ADP’s weekly employment change (due on Tuesday) will be important to monitor. In the Eurozone, industrial production for September (on Thursday) is seen increasing by 0.8% m/m after a 1.2% drop in August. In the UK, Q3 GDP data will be released on Thursday, and the consensus estimate stands at +0.2% q/q following Q2’s 0.3%. The labor market reads are due on Tuesday, with the unemployment rate seen inching up to 4.9% in the July-September period from 4.8% in June-August and wage growth moderating to 4.6% y/y from 4.7%, respectively. In China, key economic indicators for the month of October are due on Friday, and are seen softening across the board. Industrial production is projected at +5.6% y/y (6.5% in September), retail sales at +2.7% (3% in September), and fixed asset investment at -0.7% y/y in 10M2025 (-0.5% in 9M2025).