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Daily Economic Update
16.10.2025
Egypt: New privatization targets set, and strong momentum in tourism. According to the finance minister, the government aims to raise $1.25–1.5 billion by offering stakes in four state-owned enterprises by June 2026. This compares to 8 firms under a previous proposal. At least half of the proceeds will go toward reducing public debt, supporting the government’s plan to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio from 85% to 75%. In parallel, Egypt plans to expand its debt swap strategy, similar to the UAE’s arrangement last year with the Central Bank of Egypt, but this time with Kuwait and Qatar, by converting their deposits into foreign direct investments. This move could have a double impact, reducing external debt and increasing FDI by around $7 billion this year. The finance ministry also plans to issue a total of $4 billion in international debt this year, including the $1.5 billion sukuk issued few weeks ago. Two additional issuances are planned: one conventional Eurobond, and another that could either be a labeled bond (green, blue, or sustainability) or a Panda or Samurai bond. On another note, the tourism minister announced that Egypt received 15 million tourists during the first nine months of this year, a 21% y/y increase, bringing the country closer to its target of 18 million tourists by year-end.
Saudi Arabia: Inflation eased slightly in September. Consumer price inflation ticked down to 2.2% y/y in September from a 25-month high of 2.3% the previous month. The softer reading was driven primarily by a continued decline in housing services inflation which reached a near 3-year low of 5.2% (from 5.8% in August), thanks to the tenth consecutive month of decelerating housing rental inflation which reached 6.7% from a peak of 10.9% in November 2024. This came in line with government efforts to address mounting price pressures within the residential real estate market, including penalties on vacant properties. Restaurant and hotel inflation also declined (1.5% from 3%). The lower September reading was despite increased price pressure in several other categories, most notably in transport (1.6% from 1.2%) and education (1.2% from 0.8%), while deflation decelerated in other areas. Having averaged 2.0% in year-to September, we see inflation drifting closer to our full-year forecast of 2.2% in 2025.
Eurozone: Industrial output falls in August after July improvement. After a revised gain of 0.5% m/m in July, Eurozone industrial production slumped 1.2% in August. This was slightly better than market estimates of -1.6% m/m but was also its weakest performance since April. On an annual basis, output increased by 1.1% y/y, lower than July’s 1.8% gain. The slump in the monthly August figure was driven by strong decreases in capital goods (-2.2% m/m in August vs +1.7% in July) and in durable consumer goods (-1.1% vs +0.9%), while non-durable goods offered a negligible offset with a 0.1% m/m gain. The sharp monthly decline in industrial output, combined with weak consumer sentiment, underscores the fragility of the Eurozone’s economic growth.