Economic Research

Brent rises to $70/bbl on Russian supply risks and better-than-expected US economic data

US Q2 growth revised sharply higher, raising questions over further Fed easing

Abu Dhabi property sales strong in Q2 2025

Key economic metrics continue to improve with growth now seen above 4% next year

PMI's show mixed signals across major economies

Egypt’s economy is showing further concrete signs of improvement. GDP growth hit a more than 3-year high of 5% y/y in Q2 2025 despite still-high (if easing) inflation, tight financing conditions and regional geopolitical tensions.

US Fed officials express divergent views on monetary policy

People’s Bank of China holds rates steady despite economic pressures

BoE and BoJ both keep policy rates on hold amid uncertainty

Fed cuts interest rate by 25 bps, GCC central banks follow

US retail sales power ahead, supporting Q3 growth prospects

Saudi inflation ticks up though housing rental price hikes ease

Kuwait cabinet receives long-awaited housing finance law for approval 

Inline US CPI inflation and surging jobless claims keep Fed rate cuts bets intact

Egypt's inflation rate slows to a more than three-year-low in August

Growth among the major economies has come in stronger-than-expected recently and the IMF has upgraded its global growth forecast for 2025 and 2026.  

Oil prices rise after Israel's strike on Qatar

French PM loses vote of confidence, deepening political crisis

OPEC-8 to commence unwinding second tranche of voluntary cuts from next month

US job market weakens further, raising prospects of a Fed rate cut next week

US manufacturing activity shrinks for the sixth straight month, GCC PMIs mixed

Egypt’s commercial bank NFAs hit 11-year high in July

Oil prices rise for second straight week, OPEC-8 meeting in focus

Central Bank of Egypt cuts rates by 200 bps amid softer inflation

Egypt's Monetary Policy Committee will convene today with the market expecting a cut of at least 100 bps

A record-high for remittances in Egypt, boosting confidence in the external position

Trump fires Fed Governor Cook but the courts will have the final say

Kuwait’s final fiscal accounts show deficit narrowing to just over KD1 billion in FY2024/25

US Fed Chair Powell makes surprising dovish tilt, spurring a market rally

FOMC minutes reveal a growing concern for inflation risk

Egypt’s central bank governor reappointed amid improving investor sentiment

Kuwait's oil output recovering on OPEC-8 supply cut unwinding

Central bankers’ Jackson Hole meeting and flash PMIs key events this week

Saudi inflation eased to five-month low in July

IEA expects record oil supply glut in 2026

US core CPI accelerates, broadly matching expectations

Kuwait's real estate sales hit near 7-year high in July

Oil prices are on the defensive, ranging at two-month lows, as concerns intensify over the health of the global economy ...

Egypt's inflation eases to 3-month low in July

UK BoE cuts rates by 25 bps in a hawkish narrow vote split

Trump imposes 25% additional tariffs on India for buying Russian oil 

US services activity stalls in July amid stagflation signals

Gulf PMIs mixed but overall signal further solid growth in July

Kuwait: Resilient business credit growth and improving household lending in Q2

Kuwait posts strong bank credit growth in June

US job market abruptly weakens, Trump amplifies policy uncertainty

Fed and BoJ both leave rates steady 

US and China agree to continue talks on tariff truce

European stocks slide after EU trade deal with the US

US and EU strike trade deal, with 15% tariff on most EU goods

US July PMI shows rise in business activity alongside higher prices

US vows 15-50% tariffs on most countries, EU may face a 15% rate

US reaches trade agreement with Japan 

Kuwait: Investment segment leads real estate rebound in Q2 2025

Kuwait's population pushes past 5 million for the first time

Kuwait mulls creating huge domestic investment fund

Kuwait: GDP returns to growth in Q1 2025 as impact of oil output cuts fades

Upbeat data underline resilient US economy and drive US equities higher

Kuwait's GDP returned to growth in Q1

US June core CPI inflation lower than expected but tariffs starting to have an impact on consumer prices

China's Q2 GDP growth beats estimates

China: Growth in exports accelerates in June, beating expectations.

US: Trump increases tariffs on the US’s three-largest trading partners and indicates a 15-20% minimum tariff for all countries.

Egypt: Inflation below expectations in June.

US: Trump announces 50% copper tariff, threatens 200% pharma tariff, and hardens stance on country-specific ones.

Kuwait: Real estate sales rebound in Q2, led by the investment segment.

Kuwait: Real estate sales rebound in Q2, led by the investment segment.

US: Trump’s tariff letters to start going out on Monday; June’s headline job growth higher-than-expected.

Kuwait: PMI solid in June, with employment component at a record high.

US: Senate narrowly passes the tax and spending bill; it now moves to the House.

Kuwait banking credit shows solid growth in business and household sectors.

Oil drops on easing geopolitical risks while Kuwait looks to boost non-oil revenues

Mixed US PCE inflation data, Trump halts trade discussions with Canada over digital tax

Fed's Powell reiterates cautious policy stance citing unclear inflation outlook

Kuwait's Ministry of Finance begins process for $6 billion bond sale

Brent pushes higher this morning on Middle East risk

Oil prices likely to spike following US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities

Fed holds rates, sees slower growth and higher inflation than before 

US retail sales decline more than forecast but underlying performance stronger 

Recent data releases point to a pick-up in key activity metrics after a slowdown in Q1. The ramp-up in Israel-Iran hostilities has sharply increased regional uncertainty...

Bank of Japan holds interest rate steady amid rising uncertainties

Mixed data out of China as oil prices still up this morning

Oil prices soar after Israel attacks Iran

US CPI inflation muted in May despite tariff hikes

Kuwait's real estate sales hit a five-month high in May

Saudi Arabia's GDP growth remained robust in Q1

US labor indicators still robust, 50% metal duties take effect

Kuwait and Saudi PMIs signal solid gains in business activity in May

Worries over the health of the global economy amid escalating trade protectionism together with an accelerated unwind of OPEC+ output cuts... 

OPEC-8 accelerates oil supply increases but US-fueled trade uncertainty remains

As long as tariff cases are in front of the courts, not much progress can be expected in terms of US trade negotiations with trading partners.

US tariff chaos continues amid legal proceedings while Trump looks to re-escalate trade frictions

US court blocks most of President Trump's tariffs, markets rally

US consumer confidence rebounds in May

New Kuwait-Saudi oil discovery in the PNZ

Kuwait’s external current account surplus remained huge in 2024, despite narrowing for the second straight year to reach 29% of GDP, mainly on lower oil exports.

Oil prices decline on stock builds and OPEC+ output hike chatter

Central Bank of Egypt cuts interest rates by 100 bps

US equity and bond markets slump amid debt worries

Kuwait's inflation slows to a 4½-year low in April

Kuwait government plans to issue KD3-6 bn in debt this year

The global economic outlook has markedly weakened due to tariff developments with the IMF slashing its growth forecast to 2.8% in 2025, driven by hits to the US and China.

Oil prices climb for second straight week on tariff de-escalation

Moody’s cuts US credit rating to Aa1 while inflation worries ease

Trump secures additional economic deals with Qatar

US inflation lower than expected as Trump touts investments from Saudi Arabia  

US-China initial talks result in a substantial drop in tariffs

US-China trade talks make progress, details to be announced today 

Kuwait: Preliminary official estimates show GDP declining 0.7% y/y in Q4 2024 as an annual decline in oil output more than offset a robust expansion in the non-oil economy. 

US/UK trade framework agreed with the 10% baseline duties remaining

Fed holds interest rates steady, warns of uncertainty and stagflation risks

Kuwait: In continuation of the trend seen in late 2024, domestic credit growth was solid in Q1 (+1.6%), driving up the y/y increase to 4.4%. 

Economic growth should return to positive territory in 2025-26 as the oil sector expands following the unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts. 

Non-oil GDP growth in Kuwait records a solid expansion in Q4 24

Kuwait: Real estate sales fell back in Q1 2025, albeit from strong levels at the end of last year and potentially affected by seasonal factors including the month of Ramadan and Al-Fitr holiday.

Egypt's PMI declines in April

Kuwait's credit growth solid in March led by business lending

Economic growth is expected to rise to even stronger levels of 3.4% on average in 2025-26 as still-solid non-oil expansion is met with a recovery in oil sector output. 

US: The “reciprocal” tariffs that were imposed by President Trump exceeded the market’s expectation by a wide margin and were based on an arbitrary formula. 

IMF cuts regional growth outlook, but non-oil prospects still solid 

US GDP contracts as imports spike ahead of tariff hikes

Economic growth in Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar is forecast to proceed at a moderate pace in 2025 and 2026, buoyed especially by higher output volumes in the hydrocarbon sector. 

Surging US goods deficit to hit Q1 GDP growth 

Egypt’s commitment to FX flexibility and fiscal discipline is becoming more deeply rooted, with limited foreign asset drawdowns in the banking sector and continued subsidy reforms.

Saudi FDI fell in 2024, though progress continues towards Vision goals

Although downside risks to the UAE’s externally-exposed economy have increased, our base case outlook for 2025-26 remains relatively upbeat with GDP growth averaging 4.2% in 2025-26 led by higher oil production

Oil prices under pressure amid oversupply and weak demand concerns

Trump may not extend reciprocal tariff pause, seeks further China concessions

US PMIs signal muted business confidence and higher inflation amid economic uncertainty

IMF slashes global economic growth forecasts on tariff-linked deterioration in global trade

"Sell America" trade intensifies as Trump explores removing Fed Chair Powell

Kuwait's inflation rate eases to 2.4% in March

Egypt's central bank cuts interest rates following inflation plunge

Powell sees higher inflation and slowing economy on tariffs

IEA slashes oil demand growth outlook

OPEC lowers demand growth outlook on US tariffs

Brent crude falls to a four-year low amid trade war worries

US looks to provide tariff reprieves, while Fed officials careful on rate cuts

February confirms good start to the year for Kuwait's credit growth, led by business credit

Reciprocal tariffs take effect dashing hopes of delays or exemptions, markets resume steep fall

Trump threatens additional 50% tariffs on China for its retaliation amid market volatility 

Oil prices plunge on tariff and OPEC announcements

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs trigger market meltdown, increase US recession risks

Kuwait approves new public debt law

US consumer confidence slips in March amid persistent inflation concerns

Kuwait's inflation steady at 2.5% in February

Oil prices rise on OPEC+ compensatory cut plans and new Iran-related sanctions

Inflation dropped to 12.8% in February, paving the way for interest rate cuts starting April. The CBE is expected to lower rates by 2-3% initially and by another 3-5% later in the year, easing financing costs and boosting investment.

Bank of England keeps rates steady amid rising uncertainties

Fed holds rates, sees two rate cuts in 2025 and flags heightened uncertainty

BoJ keeps interest rates unchanged amid rising uncertainties

Germany’s parliament to vote on defense spending bill

US Treasury Secretary doesn’t rule out recession possibility

Saudi sovereign rating upgraded by S&P on diversification progress

US CPI inflation softer in February but tariff risks loom

The global economy is at a cross-roads given heightened policy uncertainty while monetary easing...

US's 25% metal tariffs effective today, drives EU retaliation

Inflation in Egypt plunges in February on a favorable base effect

Fitch affirms Kuwait's sovereign credit rating at 'AA-'

US labor market continues to soften gradually

US service activity unexpectedly quickens but policy-related uncertainties cloud the outlook

Trump reiterates tax and tariff agenda in speech to Congress

US imposes 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods and a further 10% on Chinese goods

Saudi Arabia: Non-oil economic growth averaged an impressive 4.8% in 2021-24, driven by unprecedented government-led investment in key strategic sectors as part of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 development plan.

Oil prices decline on oversupply concerns, trade tensions as OPEC+ decision looms

Kuwait bank credit off to a good start in 2025

US: President Trump’s actual imposition of trade tariffs has so far been less than threatened during the election campaign.

Upside risks to US inflation could delay rate cuts, Fed minutes show

US mulls sectoral tariffs on auto, pharma, and semiconductors

Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit widens in 2024

Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged up in January

The Kuwait government recently approved the draft FY25/26 budget, which projects a wider deficit of KD6.3 billion (13% of GDP), from KD 5.6 billion in the FY24/25 budget. 

US reciprocal tariffs and new auto duties to be unveiled in early April

US inflation comes in hotter, casting doubts on Fed rate cuts this year

Kuwait: Real estate sales witnessed a broad-based improvement across all segments in Q4 2024, amid stronger demand in the investment and commercial segments especially.

Saudi Arabia's industrial production rises in December 

Egypt's inflation mostly unchanged at 24% in January

New 25% tariff on US steel and aluminum imports to be announced today

US jobs report solid overall but inflation worries rise

US service activity unexpectedly eases and imports rise 

Kuwait's population growth stable in 2024 but labor force growth slows

Trumps pauses tariffs on Canada and Mexico for one month

Kuwait's government approves the FY25/26 budget with a deficit of KD 6.3 billion

Oil prices fell in 2024, weighed down by concerns over the robustness of global oil demand growth amid weak economic activity in China...

Kuwait's domestic credit ended the year on a strong note, increasing by a solid 1.2% in Q4, driving up 2024 growth to 3.7% following a multi-year low of 1.7% in 2023. 

US imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, and threatens the EU with the same

Growth in Kuwait card transactions eased in Q4 2024

Official data showed non-oil GDP growth at -2.5% y/y in Q3 24, but other recent indicators are more upbeat. Real estate activity climbed strongly in Q4 24...

Credit growth in Kuwait rises to 3.7% at end-2024

Brent falls as Trump urges OPEC+ to lower oil prices

Trump ‘demands’ lower interest rates and signals softer anti-China stance

Saudi real estate prices posted further gains in Q4 24

Trump mulling milder-than-expected 10% tariff on US imports from China

Trump declares national energy and border emergencies, but does not impose blanket tariffs

Trump’s inauguration and early policy actions to dominate the limelight this week

IMF keeps global growth forecast for 2025-26 broadly unchanged at 3.3%.

US core CPI inflation cools slightly, easing worries over the outlook

US: President-elect Trump will be inaugurated on 20 January, with an aggressive policy agenda that includes higher trade tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation across some sectors.

Kuwait: Preliminary data show GDP fell in Q3 2024, but historical figures revised stronger

US wholesale inflation comes in softer than expected, focus shifts to the CPI reading due later today

Kuwait's refined oil output reaches all-time high in Q3 2024

US sanctions on Russia push oil prices to three-month high

Inflation in Egypt falls to a two-year low in December

Fed officials more cautious on rate cuts given renewed inflation concerns

US job openings rise to a six-month high and service activity strengthens

Egypt PMI falls back as economy struggles to build momentum

Kuwait PMI signals solid non-oil growth in December

Kuwait's non-oil GDP contracts in Q3, though previous years revised stronger